Great research! It’s been on my wishlist for some time. While valuation has come down I’m in general allergic to single product and high customer concentration cases. Regulatory spillover effect is not pleasant either right now. It deserves a high risk premium. If that is considered is it really that cheap on these levels?
On the other hand, once more proven, one could argue the company would be better suited to be part of a larger group - but difficult to build the case around that as always.
Tough comparables for Q4. I will await the next report.
This is one of the most comprehensive deep dives I've read on a small-cap in a while. The concentration efficiency point really stood out to me - 2-4 grams per liter vs 900 grams of copper is a massive cost and logistics advantage that most investors probably overlook. The EU regulatory risk seems overstated given the 2% revenue exposure and the structural barriers to an IMO ban you outlined. The real question is whether they can successfully pivot to binder materials and adjacent markets like aquaculture before growth stalls.
Copper is cheaper on a per-kilo basis (for now, given how prices are going the economic argument is improving), but Selektope is way more efficient, now IF they manage to add synergistic abilities and pivot that will be great for the case but still to early to say.
The risk with Europe is the spillover effect!
And yes I agree the real risk here for me is a. execution and then b.spillover effect
Great DD! Really appreciate you taking the time and sharing this.
1) Increasing reliance on China. As you mention, the imitation theme has played out for decades. What protects them from creating a competitive product and penetrating the region?
2) Of the dry dock instances, do you know what percent get a paint refresh?
3) Let me know if I'm correct in my understanding that Skeleton replaces the need for copper oxide… effective trading 900 grams of copper for 2-4 grams of Skeleton. Obviously that's a huge value proposition.
Hey Andrew, thank you for the kind words and excellent questions
1) I believe it won't be easy to fully replicate due to the patent's existence, which I wanted to touch upon but did not, as the deep dive was becoming too lengthy.
As already stated, trust and already working with the 6/9 (1 in testing progress) could provide a shield
Gaining access to one of the Big 9 is very difficult and extremely lengthy
The risk for a new entrant is not elevated imo, the real competitor is gaining ground on more product lines versus the solutions I already stated
2) Fire question, I could have included that, while they don't have to paint, they are absolutely obligated to obtain an International Anti-Fouling System Certificate. To have that, they must apply new antifouling agents every time there is a dry docking, as their effects have completely worn off.
3)You are very correct, the only key difference is that Selektope has a more niche function and is more expensive on a per kilo basis vs copper | Copper has a wider usage, for example, it can also cover very soft fouling as well. If copper prices continue to rise this edge fades (we shall see).
4) stays effective till the next dry dock, so about 4-5 years
If you have other questions don't hesitate to dm/email me
Great work. I learned about barnacles and fouling.
How much time do you spend on research and writing? This is a true deep dive, pun intended.
Thank you, glad you enjoyed it
A lot more than I would like to admit : )
Give us the number! xddd
Excellent work!
Great research! It’s been on my wishlist for some time. While valuation has come down I’m in general allergic to single product and high customer concentration cases. Regulatory spillover effect is not pleasant either right now. It deserves a high risk premium. If that is considered is it really that cheap on these levels?
On the other hand, once more proven, one could argue the company would be better suited to be part of a larger group - but difficult to build the case around that as always.
Tough comparables for Q4. I will await the next report.
Many thanks for great work!
All small caps start somewhere!
I agree that the risk premium is warranted but market hates uncertainty so it could be overdone we shall see soon.
All eyes on sales for q4🙂
Appreciate your kind words very much
This is one of the most comprehensive deep dives I've read on a small-cap in a while. The concentration efficiency point really stood out to me - 2-4 grams per liter vs 900 grams of copper is a massive cost and logistics advantage that most investors probably overlook. The EU regulatory risk seems overstated given the 2% revenue exposure and the structural barriers to an IMO ban you outlined. The real question is whether they can successfully pivot to binder materials and adjacent markets like aquaculture before growth stalls.
Thank you so much, that means a lot!
Copper is cheaper on a per-kilo basis (for now, given how prices are going the economic argument is improving), but Selektope is way more efficient, now IF they manage to add synergistic abilities and pivot that will be great for the case but still to early to say.
The risk with Europe is the spillover effect!
And yes I agree the real risk here for me is a. execution and then b.spillover effect
You got the case 100%
Great DD! Really appreciate you taking the time and sharing this.
1) Increasing reliance on China. As you mention, the imitation theme has played out for decades. What protects them from creating a competitive product and penetrating the region?
2) Of the dry dock instances, do you know what percent get a paint refresh?
3) Let me know if I'm correct in my understanding that Skeleton replaces the need for copper oxide… effective trading 900 grams of copper for 2-4 grams of Skeleton. Obviously that's a huge value proposition.
4) How long is it effective?
Hey Andrew, thank you for the kind words and excellent questions
1) I believe it won't be easy to fully replicate due to the patent's existence, which I wanted to touch upon but did not, as the deep dive was becoming too lengthy.
As already stated, trust and already working with the 6/9 (1 in testing progress) could provide a shield
Gaining access to one of the Big 9 is very difficult and extremely lengthy
The risk for a new entrant is not elevated imo, the real competitor is gaining ground on more product lines versus the solutions I already stated
2) Fire question, I could have included that, while they don't have to paint, they are absolutely obligated to obtain an International Anti-Fouling System Certificate. To have that, they must apply new antifouling agents every time there is a dry docking, as their effects have completely worn off.
3)You are very correct, the only key difference is that Selektope has a more niche function and is more expensive on a per kilo basis vs copper | Copper has a wider usage, for example, it can also cover very soft fouling as well. If copper prices continue to rise this edge fades (we shall see).
4) stays effective till the next dry dock, so about 4-5 years
If you have other questions don't hesitate to dm/email me
Appreciated, thanks man!
wow seems super quality, i will read it during the weekend
thank you so much
Thank you looking forward to your opinion
Hey, man, I wish you the best with your shark page, but my page is about investments!